DINO
HF Sinclair CorporationAfter hours128.23+5.32 +4.33%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 16:00 ET · 20m delayAfter hours 128.75 +0.41%
Open
123.89
Prev close
122.91
Day range
123.71128.55
52-week range
45.71128.55
Volume
2.21M0.80×
Mkt cap
22.80B
P/E ttm
12.21
Fwd P/E
8.91
EPS ttm
10.50
Div yield
1.71%
Earnings
Oct 28, 2026
From 52w high
−0.25%
DINO market-implied price distribution
DINO Price at Expiry
20 OTM quotes · ATM IV 56.3%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
48%
spot 128.23
Expected price
128.64
forward 128.64
68% range
106–151
−17.2% / +17.8%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 90.66 | −29.3% |
| 16% | 106.21 | −17.2% |
| 25% | 113.03 | −11.9% |
| 50% (median) | 127.23 | −0.8% |
| 75% | 142.65 | +11.2% |
| 84% | 151.07 | +17.8% |
| 95% | 172.86 | +34.8% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (134.64) | 37% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (141.05) | 27% |
| Down 5% or more (121.82) | 40% |
| Down 10% or more (115.41) | 29% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 29%, 0.9× the 31% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.