DECK
Deckers Outdoor CorporationPre-market84.27+1.38 +1.66%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 12, 16:00 ET · 20m delayPre-market 84.96 +0.79%
Open
82.97
Prev close
82.89
Day range
82.1584.35
52-week range
77.20122.29
Volume
2.45M0.86×
Mkt cap
11.48B
P/E ttm
11.92
Fwd P/E
10.10
EPS ttm
7.07
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Oct 22, 2026
From 52w high
−31.09%
DECK market-implied price distribution
DECK Price at Expiry
19 OTM quotes · ATM IV 49.4%
Days to expiry
31
Fri, Nov 13, 2026
P(finish above spot)
57%
spot 84.27
Expected price
83.75
forward 84.56
68% range
69–97
−18.2% / +15.5%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 55.06 | −34.7% |
| 16% | 68.93 | −18.2% |
| 25% | 75.80 | −10.1% |
| 50% (median) | 86.75 | +2.9% |
| 75% | 94.50 | +12.1% |
| 84% | 97.33 | +15.5% |
| 95% | 100.19 | +18.9% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (88.48) | 45% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (92.70) | 31% |
| Down 5% or more (80.06) | 33% |
| Down 10% or more (75.84) | 25% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 25%, 1.0× the 25% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.