Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
TGT
Target Price
PCTL
Percentiles
Chance below
Price
vs spot
5%
74.05
−14.5%
16%
79.92
−7.7%
25%
81.88
−5.4%
50% (median)
85.63
−1.1%
75%
90.06
+4.0%
84%
93.06
+7.5%
95%
109.25
+26.2%
MOVE
Move Odds
Up 5% or more (90.92)
22%
Up 10% or more (95.25)
12%
Down 5% or more (82.27)
27%
Down 10% or more (77.94)
10%
Options price a 10%+ drop at 10%, 0.8× the 13% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.