CVCB3.SA
CVC BRASIL ON NMClosedCVCB3.SA discounted cash flow valuation
CVCB3.SA Fair Value
Reverse DCF: today's price implies -20.3% a year of FCF growth for years 1–5, against 25.0% in this model.
Model: 25.0% from analyst next-year EPS & revenue growth (capped). Fades linearly to terminal growth by year 10.
Model: 7.91% (CAPM, see the build-up).
Long-run growth after year 10; keep it at or below nominal GDP.
Value Bridge
| PV of free cash flow, years 1–10 | BRL 5.10B |
|---|---|
| PV of terminal value (69% of EV) | BRL 11.56B |
| Enterprise value | BRL 16.66B |
| + Cash & investments | BRL 175.76M |
| − Total debt | −BRL 540.77M |
| Equity value | BRL 16.30B |
| ÷ Shares outstanding | 520.80M |
| Value per share | BRL 31.29 |
| Market cap | BRL 848.90M |
Discount Rate Build-up
| Risk-free rate (10-yr Treasury) | 5.22% |
|---|---|
| Beta (clamped 0.5–2.5) | 0.54 |
| Equity risk premium | 5.00% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM) | 7.90% |
| Pre-tax cost of debt | 12.00% |
| Tax rate | 34.0% |
| Debt / (equity + debt) | 38.9% |
| WACC | 7.91% |
Cost of debt is interest expense ÷ total debt, held between the risk-free rate and 12%.
Free Cash Flow: History and Projection
Sensitivity: Value per Share
| WACC ↓ / g → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.91% | 41.84 | 46.61 | 52.77 | 61.05 | 72.77 |
| 6.91% | 33.06 | 35.98 | 39.57 | 44.07 | 49.89 |
| 7.91% | 27.06 | 29.00 | 31.29 | 34.05 | 37.44 |
| 8.91% | 22.72 | 24.07 | 25.64 | 27.47 | 29.64 |
| 9.91% | 19.43 | 20.42 | 21.54 | 22.82 | 24.30 |
Green is above today's price, red below (full colour at ±30%). The outlined centre cell is the current inputs.
Projected Cash Flows
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base (TTM) | — | BRL 250.47M | — | — |
| Year 1 | 25.0% | BRL 313.08M | 0.927 | BRL 290.13M |
| Year 2 | 25.0% | BRL 391.35M | 0.859 | BRL 336.08M |
| Year 3 | 25.0% | BRL 489.19M | 0.796 | BRL 389.31M |
| Year 4 | 25.0% | BRL 611.49M | 0.737 | BRL 450.96M |
| Year 5 | 25.0% | BRL 764.36M | 0.683 | BRL 522.38M |
| Year 6 | 20.5% | BRL 921.05M | 0.633 | BRL 583.33M |
| Year 7 | 16.0% | BRL 1.07B | 0.587 | BRL 627.06M |
| Year 8 | 11.5% | BRL 1.19B | 0.544 | BRL 647.92M |
| Year 9 | 7.0% | BRL 1.27B | 0.504 | BRL 642.46M |
| Year 10 | 2.5% | BRL 1.31B | 0.467 | BRL 610.25M |
Method
Two-stage free-cash-flow model, the same as the bot's lgf dcf: five years at the chosen growth rate, a straight-line fade to terminal growth by year ten, then a Gordon-growth terminal value. Everything is discounted at WACC.
Base cash flow is the trailing four quarters of operating cash flow minus capital expenditure (the latest fiscal year when quarters are missing). Default growth uses analyst long-term growth when Yahoo publishes it, else the average of next year's EPS and revenue growth, else revenue CAGR, held between −5% and 25%.
A DCF is only as good as its inputs. The terminal value is usually most of the answer, so read the sensitivity grid before the headline number. This is a model, not investment advice.