CURA.TO
CURALEAF HOLDINGS INCPre-marketCURA.TO discounted cash flow valuation
CURA.TO Fair Value
Reverse DCF: today's price implies 26.5% a year of FCF growth for years 1–5, against -5.0% in this model.
Model: -5.0% from analyst next-year EPS & revenue growth (capped). Fades linearly to terminal growth by year 10.
Model: 11.16% (CAPM, see the build-up).
Long-run growth after year 10; keep it at or below nominal GDP.
Value Bridge
| PV of free cash flow, years 1–10 | CAD 508.58M |
|---|---|
| PV of terminal value (39% of EV) | CAD 328.08M |
| Enterprise value | CAD 836.66M |
| + Cash & investments | CAD 134.84M |
| − Total debt | −CAD 1.59B |
| Equity value | −CAD 617.72M |
| ÷ Shares outstanding | 233.54M |
| Value per share | CAD -2.65 |
| Market cap | CAD 3.32B |
USD statements converted at 1.426 CAD.
Discount Rate Build-up
| Risk-free rate (10-yr Treasury) | 5.29% |
|---|---|
| Beta (clamped 0.5–2.5) | 1.60 |
| Equity risk premium | 5.00% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM) | 13.28% |
| Pre-tax cost of debt | 9.04% |
| Tax rate | 25.6% |
| Debt / (equity + debt) | 32.4% |
| WACC | 11.16% |
Cost of debt is interest expense ÷ total debt, held between the risk-free rate and 12%.
Free Cash Flow: History and Projection
Sensitivity: Value per Share
| WACC ↓ / g → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.16% | -2.05 | -1.87 | -1.68 | -1.45 | -1.17 |
| 10.16% | -2.49 | -2.37 | -2.22 | -2.06 | -1.87 |
| 11.16% | -2.85 | -2.75 | -2.65 | -2.52 | -2.39 |
| 12.16% | -3.14 | -3.06 | -2.98 | -2.89 | -2.79 |
| 13.16% | -3.38 | -3.32 | -3.26 | -3.19 | -3.11 |
Green is above today's price, red below (full colour at ±30%). The outlined centre cell is the current inputs.
Projected Cash Flows
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base (TTM) | — | CAD 105.93M | — | — |
| Year 1 | -5.0% | CAD 100.63M | 0.900 | CAD 90.53M |
| Year 2 | -5.0% | CAD 95.60M | 0.809 | CAD 77.37M |
| Year 3 | -5.0% | CAD 90.82M | 0.728 | CAD 66.12M |
| Year 4 | -5.0% | CAD 86.28M | 0.655 | CAD 56.51M |
| Year 5 | -5.0% | CAD 81.97M | 0.589 | CAD 48.29M |
| Year 6 | -3.5% | CAD 79.10M | 0.530 | CAD 41.93M |
| Year 7 | -2.0% | CAD 77.52M | 0.477 | CAD 36.96M |
| Year 8 | -0.5% | CAD 77.13M | 0.429 | CAD 33.08M |
| Year 9 | 1.0% | CAD 77.90M | 0.386 | CAD 30.06M |
| Year 10 | 2.5% | CAD 79.85M | 0.347 | CAD 27.72M |
Method
Two-stage free-cash-flow model, the same as the bot's lgf dcf: five years at the chosen growth rate, a straight-line fade to terminal growth by year ten, then a Gordon-growth terminal value. Everything is discounted at WACC.
Base cash flow is the trailing four quarters of operating cash flow minus capital expenditure (the latest fiscal year when quarters are missing). Default growth uses analyst long-term growth when Yahoo publishes it, else the average of next year's EPS and revenue growth, else revenue CAGR, held between −5% and 25%.
A DCF is only as good as its inputs. The terminal value is usually most of the answer, so read the sensitivity grid before the headline number. This is a model, not investment advice.