Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
TGT
Target Price
PCTL
Percentiles
Chance below
Price
vs spot
5%
44.23
−28.7%
16%
51.70
−16.7%
25%
54.77
−11.7%
50% (median)
61.03
−1.6%
75%
67.74
+9.2%
84%
71.38
+15.1%
95%
81.12
+30.8%
MOVE
Move Odds
Up 5% or more (65.13)
34%
Up 10% or more (68.23)
24%
Down 5% or more (58.93)
41%
Down 10% or more (55.83)
29%
Options price a 10%+ drop at 29%, 1.0× the 30% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.