CSX
CSX CorporationPre-market47.75+0.49 +1.04%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 12, 16:00 ET · 15m delay
Open
47.30
Prev close
47.26
Day range
47.0147.75
52-week range
33.6353.60
Volume
5.70M0.52×
Mkt cap
88.46B
P/E ttm
27.76
Fwd P/E
20.91
EPS ttm
1.72
Div yield
1.17%
Earnings
Oct 21, 2026
From 52w high
−10.91%
CSX market-implied price distribution
CSX Price at Expiry
7 OTM quotes · ATM IV 31.3%
Days to expiry
31
Fri, Nov 13, 2026
P(finish above spot)
44%
spot 47.75
Expected price
47.36
forward 47.36
68% range
44–51
−8.8% / +7.1%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 41.32 | −13.5% |
| 16% | 43.56 | −8.8% |
| 25% | 44.70 | −6.4% |
| 50% (median) | 46.45 | −2.7% |
| 75% | 50.97 | +6.7% |
| 84% | 51.14 | +7.1% |
| 95% | 53.89 | +12.9% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (50.14) | 33% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (52.53) | 9.2% |
| Down 5% or more (45.36) | 44% |
| Down 10% or more (42.98) | 12% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 12%, 0.8× the 15% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.