CSUD3.SA
CSU DIGITAL ON EJ NMClosedCSUD3.SA discounted cash flow valuation
CSUD3.SA Fair Value
Reverse DCF: today's price implies 0.5% a year of FCF growth for years 1–5, against 5.1% in this model.
Model: 5.1% from 3-yr revenue CAGR. Fades linearly to terminal growth by year 10.
Model: 7.64% (CAPM, see the build-up).
Long-run growth after year 10; keep it at or below nominal GDP.
Value Bridge
| PV of free cash flow, years 1–10 | BRL 344.26M |
|---|---|
| PV of terminal value (65% of EV) | BRL 652.85M |
| Enterprise value | BRL 997.11M |
| + Cash & investments | BRL 72.10M |
| − Total debt | −BRL 140.02M |
| Equity value | BRL 929.19M |
| ÷ Shares outstanding | 41.35M |
| Value per share | BRL 22.47 |
| Market cap | BRL 691.85M |
Discount Rate Build-up
| Risk-free rate (10-yr Treasury) | 5.19% |
|---|---|
| Beta (adjusted toward 1) | 0.67 |
| Equity risk premium | 4.50% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM) | 8.18% |
| Pre-tax cost of debt | 5.19% |
| Tax rate | 4.7% |
| Debt / (equity + debt) | 16.8% |
| WACC | 7.64% |
Beta is Yahoo's, held between 0.5 and 2.5, then moved a third of the way toward 1. Cost of debt is interest expense ÷ total debt, held between the risk-free rate and 12%. WACC is at least the risk-free rate plus 2%.
Free Cash Flow: History and Projection
Sensitivity: Value per Share
| WACC ↓ / g → | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% | 4.00% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.64% | 30.85 | 35.13 | 41.03 | 49.68 | 63.61 |
| 6.64% | 23.72 | 26.13 | 29.20 | 33.24 | 38.82 |
| 7.64% | 19.13 | 20.64 | 22.47 | 24.75 | 27.65 |
| 8.64% | 15.92 | 16.93 | 18.13 | 19.56 | 21.29 |
| 9.64% | 13.55 | 14.27 | 15.10 | 16.06 | 17.20 |
Green is above today's price, red below (full colour at ±30%). The outlined centre cell is the current inputs.
Projected Cash Flows
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base (TTM) | — | BRL 39.67M | — | — |
| Year 1 | 5.1% | BRL 41.69M | 0.929 | BRL 38.73M |
| Year 2 | 5.1% | BRL 43.82M | 0.863 | BRL 37.82M |
| Year 3 | 5.1% | BRL 46.05M | 0.802 | BRL 36.92M |
| Year 4 | 5.1% | BRL 48.40M | 0.745 | BRL 36.05M |
| Year 5 | 5.1% | BRL 50.87M | 0.692 | BRL 35.20M |
| Year 6 | 4.7% | BRL 53.25M | 0.643 | BRL 34.23M |
| Year 7 | 4.3% | BRL 55.52M | 0.597 | BRL 33.16M |
| Year 8 | 3.8% | BRL 57.65M | 0.555 | BRL 31.99M |
| Year 9 | 3.4% | BRL 59.62M | 0.516 | BRL 30.73M |
| Year 10 | 3.0% | BRL 61.41M | 0.479 | BRL 29.41M |
Method
Two-stage free-cash-flow model, the same as the bot's lgf dcf: five years at the chosen growth rate, a straight-line fade to terminal growth by year ten, then a Gordon-growth terminal value. Everything is discounted at WACC.
Base cash flow is the trailing four quarters of operating cash flow minus capital expenditure (the latest fiscal year when quarters are missing). Default growth uses analyst long-term growth when Yahoo publishes it, else next year's revenue growth (steadier than one year's EPS), else next year's EPS growth, else revenue CAGR, held between −2% and 25%. Terminal growth defaults to 3%.
A DCF is only as good as its inputs. The terminal value is usually most of the answer, so read the sensitivity grid before the headline number. This is a model, not investment advice.