CSTM
Constellium SEOpen25.70+0.20 +0.78%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 14:52 ET · 20m delay
Open
25.43
Prev close
25.50
Day range
25.2525.75
52-week range
14.6236.99
Volume
408.50K0.26×
Mkt cap
3.48B
P/E ttm
6.64
Fwd P/E
8.77
EPS ttm
3.87
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Oct 28, 2026
From 52w high
−30.52%
CSTM market-implied price distribution
CSTM Price at Expiry
27 OTM quotes · ATM IV 45.0%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
51%
spot 25.70
Expected price
25.73
forward 25.77
68% range
22–29
−14.6% / +12.7%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 14.07 | −45.3% |
| 16% | 21.96 | −14.6% |
| 25% | 23.51 | −8.5% |
| 50% (median) | 25.76 | +0.2% |
| 75% | 27.81 | +8.2% |
| 84% | 28.97 | +12.7% |
| 95% | 33.34 | +29.7% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (26.99) | 34% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (28.27) | 21% |
| Down 5% or more (24.42) | 33% |
| Down 10% or more (23.13) | 22% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 22%, 0.9× the 25% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.