CRNC
Cerence Inc.Open9.12+0.36 +4.17%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 13, 15:37 ET · 15m delay
Open
8.53
Prev close
8.75
Day range
8.529.23
52-week range
5.8513.49
Volume
725.84K1.02×
Mkt cap
412.27M
P/E ttm
—
Fwd P/E
11.61
EPS ttm
-0.3600
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Aug 6, 2026
From 52w high
−32.43%
CRNC market-implied price distribution
CRNC Price at Expiry
13 OTM quotes · ATM IV 96.1%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
44%
spot 9.12
Expected price
8.71
forward 8.91
68% range
6–11
−34.5% / +22.0%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 3.23 | −64.6% |
| 16% | 5.97 | −34.5% |
| 25% | 7.08 | −22.3% |
| 50% (median) | 8.76 | −3.9% |
| 75% | 10.29 | +12.9% |
| 84% | 11.12 | +22.0% |
| 95% | 13.56 | +48.8% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (9.57) | 36% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (10.03) | 29% |
| Down 5% or more (8.66) | 48% |
| Down 10% or more (8.20) | 40% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 40%, 0.9× the 46% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.