CRML
Critical Metals Corp.Open6.30−0.24 −3.75%USD
NasdaqGM · as of Oct 14, 13:49 ET · 15m delay
Open
6.80
Prev close
6.54
Day range
6.286.81
52-week range
5.1228.00
Volume
5.94M0.77×
Mkt cap
924.66M
P/E ttm
—
Fwd P/E
-33.13
EPS ttm
-1.87
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
—
From 52w high
−77.52%
CRML market-implied price distribution
CRML Price at Expiry
14 OTM quotes · ATM IV 103.0%
Days to expiry
30
Fri, Nov 13, 2026
P(finish above spot)
45%
spot 6.28
Expected price
6.33
forward 6.30
68% range
4–8
−30.8% / +26.4%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 3.49 | −44.5% |
| 16% | 4.35 | −30.8% |
| 25% | 4.98 | −20.7% |
| 50% (median) | 6.06 | −3.5% |
| 75% | 7.24 | +15.3% |
| 84% | 7.94 | +26.4% |
| 95% | 10.41 | +65.7% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (6.60) | 37% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (6.91) | 31% |
| Down 5% or more (5.97) | 48% |
| Down 10% or more (5.65) | 40% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 40%, 1.0× the 41% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.