CP
Canadian Pacific Kansas City LiOpen85.05−0.48 −0.56%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 10:19 ET · 20m delay
Open
85.60
Prev close
85.53
Day range
84.8885.94
52-week range
68.4296.90
Volume
301.06K0.13×
Mkt cap
74.77B
P/E ttm
27.35
Fwd P/E
20.28
EPS ttm
3.11
Div yield
0.88%
Earnings
Oct 28, 2026
From 52w high
−12.23%
CP market-implied price distribution
CP Price at Expiry
16 OTM quotes · ATM IV 22.8%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
58%
spot 85.05
Expected price
85.59
forward 86.08
68% range
80–91
−6.4% / +7.5%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 68.35 | −19.6% |
| 16% | 79.64 | −6.4% |
| 25% | 82.17 | −3.4% |
| 50% (median) | 86.09 | +1.2% |
| 75% | 89.60 | +5.4% |
| 84% | 91.43 | +7.5% |
| 95% | 96.53 | +13.5% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (89.30) | 27% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (93.56) | 9.5% |
| Down 5% or more (80.80) | 19% |
| Down 10% or more (76.55) | 11% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 11%, 1.7× the 6.1% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.