Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
TGT
Target Price
PCTL
Percentiles
Chance below
Price
vs spot
5%
266.66
−18.0%
16%
292.72
−9.9%
25%
303.43
−6.7%
50% (median)
324.19
−0.3%
75%
345.65
+6.3%
84%
357.54
+10.0%
95%
394.82
+21.5%
MOVE
Move Odds
Up 5% or more (341.31)
29%
Up 10% or more (357.57)
16%
Down 5% or more (308.81)
31%
Down 10% or more (292.55)
16%
Options price a 10%+ drop at 16%, 0.8× the 19% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.