Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
TGT
Target Price
PCTL
Percentiles
Chance below
Price
vs spot
5%
34.06
−38.7%
16%
50.26
−9.5%
25%
52.33
−5.8%
50% (median)
55.48
−0.1%
75%
58.37
+5.1%
84%
59.91
+7.9%
95%
64.14
+15.5%
MOVE
Move Odds
Up 5% or more (58.32)
25%
Up 10% or more (61.10)
11%
Down 5% or more (52.77)
28%
Down 10% or more (49.99)
15%
Options price a 10%+ drop at 15%, 1.0× the 15% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.