COMP
Compass, Inc.Pre-market8.82−0.57 −6.07%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 12, 16:00 ET · 20m delayPre-market 8.96 +1.53%
Open
9.20
Prev close
9.39
Day range
8.759.23
52-week range
6.3713.96
Volume
15.01M1.14×
Mkt cap
6.77B
P/E ttm
147.00
Fwd P/E
10.44
EPS ttm
0.0600
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Aug 4, 2026
From 52w high
−36.80%
COMP market-implied price distribution
COMP Price at Expiry
11 OTM quotes · ATM IV 63.0%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
57%
spot 8.82
Expected price
9.22
forward 9.17
68% range
7–11
−17.7% / +24.1%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 3.82 | −56.7% |
| 16% | 7.26 | −17.7% |
| 25% | 7.95 | −9.8% |
| 50% (median) | 9.09 | +3.1% |
| 75% | 10.25 | +16.2% |
| 84% | 10.95 | +24.1% |
| 95% | 14.56 | +65.1% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (9.26) | 46% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (9.70) | 35% |
| Down 5% or more (8.38) | 33% |
| Down 10% or more (7.94) | 25% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 25%, 0.9× the 27% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.