CMC
Commercial Metals CompanyPre-market64.08+0.19 +0.30%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 12, 16:00 ET · 20m delay
Open
63.50
Prev close
63.89
Day range
63.6065.12
52-week range
53.0884.87
Volume
1.14M1.03×
Mkt cap
—
P/E ttm
12.11
Fwd P/E
8.71
EPS ttm
5.29
Div yield
1.25%
Earnings
Oct 15, 2026
From 52w high
−24.50%
CMC market-implied price distribution
CMC Price at Expiry
24 OTM quotes · ATM IV 45.1%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
49%
spot 64.08
Expected price
64.56
forward 64.37
68% range
56–72
−12.5% / +12.0%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 38.93 | −39.3% |
| 16% | 56.04 | −12.5% |
| 25% | 58.98 | −8.0% |
| 50% (median) | 63.91 | −0.3% |
| 75% | 68.88 | +7.5% |
| 84% | 71.79 | +12.0% |
| 95% | 82.77 | +29.2% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (67.28) | 32% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (70.49) | 19% |
| Down 5% or more (60.88) | 33% |
| Down 10% or more (57.67) | 20% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 20%, 0.8× the 25% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.