CM
Canadian Imperial Bank of CommeOpen111.63+1.62 +1.47%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 15:50 ET · 20m delay
Open
111.26
Prev close
110.01
Day range
109.85111.89
52-week range
79.32124.86
Volume
392.18K0.33×
Mkt cap
101.35B
P/E ttm
14.96
Fwd P/E
13.99
EPS ttm
7.46
Div yield
2.73%
Earnings
Dec 3, 2026
From 52w high
−10.60%
CM market-implied price distribution
CM Price at Expiry
7 OTM quotes · ATM IV 20.6%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
49%
spot 111.63
Expected price
111.39
forward 111.60
68% range
104–119
−6.7% / +6.4%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 94.11 | −15.7% |
| 16% | 104.18 | −6.7% |
| 25% | 106.87 | −4.3% |
| 50% (median) | 111.54 | −0.1% |
| 75% | 116.17 | +4.1% |
| 84% | 118.78 | +6.4% |
| 95% | 126.80 | +13.6% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (117.21) | 21% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (122.79) | 8.7% |
| Down 5% or more (106.05) | 22% |
| Down 10% or more (100.47) | 9.4% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 9.4%, 1.5× the 6.1% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.