Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
TGT
Target Price
PCTL
Percentiles
Chance below
Price
vs spot
5%
3.09
−69.8%
16%
5.33
−48.0%
25%
7.30
−28.8%
50% (median)
9.31
−9.2%
75%
11.32
+10.4%
84%
12.82
+25.1%
95%
21.54
+110.1%
MOVE
Move Odds
Up 5% or more (10.76)
30%
Up 10% or more (11.28)
25%
Down 5% or more (9.74)
56%
Down 10% or more (9.23)
49%
Options price a 10%+ drop at 49%, 1.0× the 49% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.