Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 227.70 | −34.5% |
| 16% | 281.32 | −19.0% |
| 25% | 304.71 | −12.3% |
| 50% (median) | 353.63 | +1.8% |
| 75% | 407.80 | +17.4% |
| 84% | 437.86 | +26.0% |
| 95% | 517.89 | +49.0% |
| Up 5% or more (364.88) | 44% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (382.25) | 36% |
| Down 5% or more (330.13) | 37% |
| Down 10% or more (312.75) | 29% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 29%, 1.1× the 25% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.