Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
TGT
Target Price
PCTL
Percentiles
Chance below
Price
vs spot
5%
248.83
−22.0%
16%
282.99
−11.3%
25%
296.58
−7.0%
50% (median)
319.84
+0.3%
75%
341.37
+7.0%
84%
352.18
+10.4%
95%
378.85
+18.8%
MOVE
Move Odds
Up 5% or more (334.97)
32%
Up 10% or more (350.92)
17%
Down 5% or more (303.07)
31%
Down 10% or more (287.12)
18%
Options price a 10%+ drop at 18%, 1.2× the 15% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.