CG
The Carlyle Group Inc.Open37.26−0.99 −2.59%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 13, 14:52 ET · 15m delay
Open
38.39
Prev close
38.25
Day range
37.0538.50
52-week range
37.0567.30
Volume
1.49M0.42×
Mkt cap
13.28B
P/E ttm
38.41
Fwd P/E
7.48
EPS ttm
0.9700
Div yield
3.66%
Earnings
Nov 4, 2026
From 52w high
−44.64%
CG market-implied price distribution
CG Price at Expiry
12 OTM quotes · ATM IV 45.5%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
48%
spot 37.26
Expected price
37.01
forward 37.20
68% range
32–42
−14.9% / +13.0%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 24.84 | −33.3% |
| 16% | 31.71 | −14.9% |
| 25% | 33.61 | −9.8% |
| 50% (median) | 37.03 | −0.6% |
| 75% | 40.36 | +8.3% |
| 84% | 42.10 | +13.0% |
| 95% | 46.62 | +25.1% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (39.12) | 33% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (40.99) | 21% |
| Down 5% or more (35.40) | 37% |
| Down 10% or more (33.53) | 25% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 25%, 0.9× the 26% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.