CG.TO
CENTERRA GOLD INC.ClosedCG.TO discounted cash flow valuation
CG.TO Fair Value
Reverse DCF: today's price implies 31.6% a year of FCF growth for years 1–5, against 9.2% in this model.
Model: 9.2% from analyst next-year EPS & revenue growth. Fades linearly to terminal growth by year 10.
Model: 13.13% (CAPM, see the build-up).
Long-run growth after year 10; keep it at or below nominal GDP.
Value Bridge
| PV of free cash flow, years 1–10 | CAD 1.06B |
|---|---|
| PV of terminal value (41% of EV) | CAD 745.61M |
| Enterprise value | CAD 1.81B |
| + Cash & investments | CAD 644.23M |
| − Total debt | −CAD 65.07M |
| Equity value | CAD 2.39B |
| ÷ Shares outstanding | 195.61M |
| Value per share | CAD 12.19 |
| Market cap | CAD 6.07B |
USD statements converted at 1.422 CAD.
Discount Rate Build-up
| Risk-free rate (10-yr Treasury) | 5.22% |
|---|---|
| Beta (clamped 0.5–2.5) | 1.60 |
| Equity risk premium | 5.00% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM) | 13.23% |
| Pre-tax cost of debt | 5.22% |
| Tax rate | 21.0% |
| Debt / (equity + debt) | 1.1% |
| WACC | 13.13% |
Cost of debt is interest expense ÷ total debt, held between the risk-free rate and 12%.
Free Cash Flow: History and Projection
Sensitivity: Value per Share
| WACC ↓ / g → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.13% | 13.71 | 14.09 | 14.51 | 14.99 | 15.53 |
| 12.13% | 12.61 | 12.91 | 13.23 | 13.59 | 14.00 |
| 13.13% | 11.71 | 11.94 | 12.19 | 12.47 | 12.78 |
| 14.13% | 10.95 | 11.13 | 11.34 | 11.56 | 11.80 |
| 15.13% | 10.30 | 10.46 | 10.62 | 10.80 | 10.99 |
Green is above today's price, red below (full colour at ±30%). The outlined centre cell is the current inputs.
Projected Cash Flows
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base (TTM) | — | CAD 132.95M | — | — |
| Year 1 | 9.2% | CAD 145.18M | 0.884 | CAD 128.33M |
| Year 2 | 9.2% | CAD 158.53M | 0.781 | CAD 123.87M |
| Year 3 | 9.2% | CAD 173.12M | 0.691 | CAD 119.57M |
| Year 4 | 9.2% | CAD 189.05M | 0.611 | CAD 115.41M |
| Year 5 | 9.2% | CAD 206.44M | 0.540 | CAD 111.40M |
| Year 6 | 7.9% | CAD 222.66M | 0.477 | CAD 106.21M |
| Year 7 | 6.5% | CAD 237.18M | 0.422 | CAD 100.01M |
| Year 8 | 5.2% | CAD 249.47M | 0.373 | CAD 92.98M |
| Year 9 | 3.8% | CAD 259.05M | 0.329 | CAD 85.34M |
| Year 10 | 2.5% | CAD 265.52M | 0.291 | CAD 77.33M |
Method
Two-stage free-cash-flow model, the same as the bot's lgf dcf: five years at the chosen growth rate, a straight-line fade to terminal growth by year ten, then a Gordon-growth terminal value. Everything is discounted at WACC.
Base cash flow is the trailing four quarters of operating cash flow minus capital expenditure (the latest fiscal year when quarters are missing). Default growth uses analyst long-term growth when Yahoo publishes it, else the average of next year's EPS and revenue growth, else revenue CAGR, held between −5% and 25%.
A DCF is only as good as its inputs. The terminal value is usually most of the answer, so read the sensitivity grid before the headline number. This is a model, not investment advice.