CF
CF Industries Holdings, Inc.Pre-market114.58+3.04 +2.73%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 12, 16:01 ET · 20m delayPre-market 115.25 +0.57%
Open
112.50
Prev close
111.54
Day range
112.42115.07
52-week range
75.42141.96
Volume
2.24M0.89×
Mkt cap
17.34B
P/E ttm
8.73
Fwd P/E
10.27
EPS ttm
13.12
Div yield
2.09%
Earnings
Nov 4, 2026
From 52w high
−19.29%
CF market-implied price distribution
CF Price at Expiry
26 OTM quotes · ATM IV 45.1%
Days to expiry
31
Fri, Nov 13, 2026
P(finish above spot)
49%
spot 114.58
Expected price
114.91
forward 114.98
68% range
99–130
−13.3% / +13.7%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 89.60 | −21.8% |
| 16% | 99.29 | −13.3% |
| 25% | 104.06 | −9.2% |
| 50% (median) | 114.20 | −0.3% |
| 75% | 124.89 | +9.0% |
| 84% | 130.30 | +13.7% |
| 95% | 142.34 | +24.2% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (120.31) | 35% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (126.04) | 23% |
| Down 5% or more (108.85) | 36% |
| Down 10% or more (103.12) | 23% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 23%, 1.0× the 22% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.