CENTRALBK.NS
CENTRAL BANK OF INDIAClosedCENTRALBK.NS discounted cash flow valuation
CENTRAL BANK OF INDIA is a banks - regional company. Its cash flows include lending and deposits, so free cash flow isn't owner earnings and this model can mislead. Compare it with peers on book value and earnings instead.
CENTRALBK.NS Fair Value
Reverse DCF: today's price implies -11.3% a year of FCF growth for years 1–5, against 9.3% in this model.
Model: 9.3% from 3-yr revenue CAGR. Fades linearly to terminal growth by year 10.
Model: 7.78% (CAPM, see the build-up).
Long-run growth after year 10; keep it at or below nominal GDP.
Value Bridge
| PV of free cash flow, years 1–10 | INR 242.55B |
|---|---|
| PV of terminal value (64% of EV) | INR 432.80B |
| Enterprise value | INR 675.35B |
| + Cash & investments | INR 371.06B |
| − Total debt | −INR 288.19B |
| Equity value | INR 758.22B |
| ÷ Shares outstanding | 9.05B |
| Value per share | INR 83.77 |
| Market cap | INR 282.22B |
Discount Rate Build-up
| Risk-free rate (10-yr Treasury) | 5.26% |
|---|---|
| Beta (clamped 0.5–2.5) | 0.50 |
| Equity risk premium | 5.00% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM) | 7.76% |
| Pre-tax cost of debt | 12.00% |
| Tax rate | 35.0% |
| Debt / (equity + debt) | 50.5% |
| WACC | 7.78% |
Cost of debt is interest expense ÷ total debt, held between the risk-free rate and 12%.
Free Cash Flow: History and Projection
Sensitivity: Value per Share
| WACC ↓ / g → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.78% | 107.12 | 117.79 | 131.71 | 150.63 | 177.85 |
| 6.78% | 87.67 | 94.14 | 102.11 | 112.19 | 125.35 |
| 7.78% | 74.46 | 78.71 | 83.77 | 89.88 | 97.42 |
| 8.78% | 64.91 | 67.87 | 71.30 | 75.32 | 80.10 |
| 9.78% | 57.69 | 59.84 | 62.28 | 65.08 | 68.33 |
Green is above today's price, red below (full colour at ±30%). The outlined centre cell is the current inputs.
Projected Cash Flows
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base (FY2026) | — | INR 23.46B | — | — |
| Year 1 | 9.3% | INR 25.64B | 0.928 | INR 23.79B |
| Year 2 | 9.3% | INR 28.03B | 0.861 | INR 24.13B |
| Year 3 | 9.3% | INR 30.63B | 0.799 | INR 24.47B |
| Year 4 | 9.3% | INR 33.48B | 0.741 | INR 24.81B |
| Year 5 | 9.3% | INR 36.60B | 0.688 | INR 25.16B |
| Year 6 | 7.9% | INR 39.50B | 0.638 | INR 25.20B |
| Year 7 | 6.6% | INR 42.10B | 0.592 | INR 24.92B |
| Year 8 | 5.2% | INR 44.30B | 0.549 | INR 24.33B |
| Year 9 | 3.9% | INR 46.01B | 0.510 | INR 23.44B |
| Year 10 | 2.5% | INR 47.16B | 0.473 | INR 22.29B |
Method
Two-stage free-cash-flow model, the same as the bot's lgf dcf: five years at the chosen growth rate, a straight-line fade to terminal growth by year ten, then a Gordon-growth terminal value. Everything is discounted at WACC.
Base cash flow is the trailing four quarters of operating cash flow minus capital expenditure (the latest fiscal year when quarters are missing). Default growth uses analyst long-term growth when Yahoo publishes it, else the average of next year's EPS and revenue growth, else revenue CAGR, held between −5% and 25%.
A DCF is only as good as its inputs. The terminal value is usually most of the answer, so read the sensitivity grid before the headline number. This is a model, not investment advice.