Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
TGT
Target Price
PCTL
Percentiles
Chance below
Price
vs spot
5%
8.97
−31.7%
16%
10.79
−17.8%
25%
11.70
−10.9%
50% (median)
13.22
+0.7%
75%
14.68
+11.8%
84%
15.47
+17.8%
95%
17.50
+33.3%
MOVE
Move Odds
Up 5% or more (13.79)
39%
Up 10% or more (14.44)
28%
Down 5% or more (12.47)
37%
Down 10% or more (11.82)
27%
Options price a 10%+ drop at 27%, 1.0× the 28% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.