CAT
Caterpillar, Inc.Pre-market799.37−1.10 −0.14%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 12, 16:00 ET · 20m delayPre-market 795.71 −0.48%
Open
798.42
Prev close
800.47
Day range
795.76812.00
52-week range
499.011,073.46
Volume
1.45M0.55×
Mkt cap
367.45B
P/E ttm
34.37
Fwd P/E
24.64
EPS ttm
23.26
Div yield
0.82%
Earnings
Oct 29, 2026
From 52w high
−25.53%
CAT market-implied price distribution
CAT Price at Expiry
79 OTM quotes · ATM IV 44.3%
Days to expiry
31
Fri, Nov 13, 2026
P(finish above spot)
54%
spot 799.37
Expected price
809.28
forward 811.66
68% range
705–911
−11.9% / +14.0%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 610.25 | −23.7% |
| 16% | 704.61 | −11.9% |
| 25% | 740.36 | −7.4% |
| 50% (median) | 808.81 | +1.2% |
| 75% | 876.72 | +9.7% |
| 84% | 911.28 | +14.0% |
| 95% | 993.90 | +24.3% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (839.34) | 38% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (879.31) | 24% |
| Down 5% or more (759.40) | 31% |
| Down 10% or more (719.43) | 19% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 19%, 1.0× the 19% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.