CASY
Caseys General Stores, Inc.Pre-market645.72−0.55 −0.09%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 12, 16:00 ET · 15m delay
Open
651.00
Prev close
646.27
Day range
642.15652.05
52-week range
497.38927.85
Volume
254.03K0.52×
Mkt cap
23.87B
P/E ttm
31.10
Fwd P/E
27.53
EPS ttm
20.76
Div yield
0.40%
Earnings
Sep 8, 2026
From 52w high
−30.41%
CASY market-implied price distribution
CASY Price at Expiry
55 OTM quotes · ATM IV 31.2%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
42%
spot 645.72
Expected price
636.08
forward 643.11
68% range
580–695
−10.2% / +7.7%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 524.39 | −18.8% |
| 16% | 580.00 | −10.2% |
| 25% | 598.84 | −7.3% |
| 50% (median) | 635.12 | −1.6% |
| 75% | 673.81 | +4.4% |
| 84% | 695.37 | +7.7% |
| 95% | 752.98 | +16.6% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (678.01) | 23% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (710.29) | 12% |
| Down 5% or more (613.43) | 34% |
| Down 10% or more (581.15) | 16% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 16%, 1.0× the 17% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.