BUG
Global X Cybersecurity ETFClosed48.57−0.12 −0.25%USD
NasdaqGM · as of Oct 13, 16:00 ET · 15m delayAfter hours 48.67 +0.21%
Open
48.18
Prev close
48.69
Day range
48.1149.72
52-week range
23.1550.58
Volume
981.87K0.68×
P/E ttm
39.06
EPS ttm
1.24
Div yield
0.03%
From 52w high
−3.97%
BUG market-implied price distribution
BUG Price at Expiry
21 OTM quotes · ATM IV 38.5%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
49%
spot 48.57
Expected price
48.72
forward 48.83
68% range
43–55
−11.2% / +12.7%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 37.57 | −22.7% |
| 16% | 43.15 | −11.2% |
| 25% | 44.97 | −7.4% |
| 50% (median) | 48.48 | −0.2% |
| 75% | 52.36 | +7.8% |
| 84% | 54.74 | +12.7% |
| 95% | 60.13 | +23.8% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (51.00) | 32% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (53.43) | 20% |
| Down 5% or more (46.14) | 33% |
| Down 10% or more (43.71) | 18% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 18%, 0.9× the 20% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.