Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
TGT
Target Price
PCTL
Percentiles
Chance below
Price
vs spot
5%
28.86
−21.5%
16%
33.03
−10.2%
25%
34.43
−6.4%
50% (median)
37.00
+0.6%
75%
39.39
+7.1%
84%
40.55
+10.3%
95%
43.14
+17.3%
MOVE
Move Odds
Up 5% or more (38.61)
32%
Up 10% or more (40.45)
17%
Down 5% or more (34.93)
29%
Down 10% or more (33.09)
16%
Options price a 10%+ drop at 16%, 1.1× the 16% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.