BITB
Bitwise Bitcoin ETFAfter hours44.31−0.85 −1.88%USD
NYSEArca · as of Oct 14, 16:00 ETAfter hours 44.26 −0.11%
Open
44.81
Prev close
45.16
Day range
44.1845.04
52-week range
31.4963.16
Volume
543.51K0.49×
Div yield
0.00%
From 52w high
−29.84%
BITB market-implied price distribution
BITB Price at Expiry
17 OTM quotes · ATM IV 36.8%
Days to expiry
37
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
54%
spot 44.31
Expected price
44.69
forward 44.84
68% range
39–50
−12.3% / +11.8%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 34.68 | −21.7% |
| 16% | 38.87 | −12.3% |
| 25% | 41.19 | −7.0% |
| 50% (median) | 44.74 | +1.0% |
| 75% | 47.90 | +8.1% |
| 84% | 49.52 | +11.8% |
| 95% | 53.91 | +21.7% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (46.53) | 35% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (48.74) | 20% |
| Down 5% or more (42.09) | 30% |
| Down 10% or more (39.88) | 19% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 19%, 1.1× the 17% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.