BIRK
Birkenstock Holding plcAfter hours34.18+0.33 +0.97%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 16:00 ET · 20m delayAfter hours 34.18 0.00%
Open
34.28
Prev close
33.85
Day range
33.9934.60
52-week range
29.9350.73
Volume
1.15M0.51×
Mkt cap
5.64B
P/E ttm
16.05
Fwd P/E
12.54
EPS ttm
2.13
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Aug 13, 2026
From 52w high
−32.62%
BIRK market-implied price distribution
BIRK Price at Expiry
11 OTM quotes · ATM IV 46.0%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
51%
spot 34.18
Expected price
34.52
forward 34.31
68% range
30–39
−13.0% / +14.6%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 26.24 | −23.2% |
| 16% | 29.72 | −13.0% |
| 25% | 31.25 | −8.6% |
| 50% (median) | 34.30 | +0.4% |
| 75% | 37.48 | +9.7% |
| 84% | 39.18 | +14.6% |
| 95% | 43.76 | +28.0% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (35.89) | 36% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (37.60) | 24% |
| Down 5% or more (32.47) | 34% |
| Down 10% or more (30.76) | 22% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 22%, 0.9× the 25% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.