BILI
Bilibili Inc.After hours14.98−0.21 −1.38%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 13, 16:00 ET · 15m delayAfter hours 14.98 0.00%
Open
15.26
Prev close
15.19
Day range
14.7515.28
52-week range
14.3236.40
Volume
3.64M1.28×
Mkt cap
6.17B
P/E ttm
29.37
Fwd P/E
11.61
EPS ttm
0.5100
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Aug 27, 2026
From 52w high
−58.85%
BILI market-implied price distribution
BILI Price at Expiry
14 OTM quotes · ATM IV 51.1%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
48%
spot 14.98
Expected price
15.12
forward 15.10
68% range
13–17
−14.9% / +15.4%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 10.88 | −27.3% |
| 16% | 12.74 | −14.9% |
| 25% | 13.45 | −10.2% |
| 50% (median) | 14.86 | −0.8% |
| 75% | 16.41 | +9.6% |
| 84% | 17.29 | +15.4% |
| 95% | 19.80 | +32.2% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (15.73) | 35% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (16.48) | 24% |
| Down 5% or more (14.23) | 38% |
| Down 10% or more (13.48) | 26% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 26%, 0.9× the 27% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.