BGC
BGC Group, Inc.Open11.52−0.09 −0.82%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 13, 14:52 ET · 15m delay
Open
11.72
Prev close
11.61
Day range
11.4411.74
52-week range
8.2712.89
Volume
829.75K0.26×
Mkt cap
5.37B
P/E ttm
28.79
Fwd P/E
7.20
EPS ttm
0.4000
Div yield
0.69%
Earnings
Jul 30, 2026
From 52w high
−10.67%
BGC market-implied price distribution
BGC Price at Expiry
10 OTM quotes · ATM IV 38.1%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
42%
spot 11.52
Expected price
11.07
forward 11.22
68% range
9–13
−24.7% / +9.5%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 7.27 | −36.9% |
| 16% | 8.67 | −24.7% |
| 25% | 9.91 | −14.0% |
| 50% (median) | 11.24 | −2.4% |
| 75% | 12.15 | +5.5% |
| 84% | 12.61 | +9.5% |
| 95% | 14.05 | +22.0% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (12.09) | 26% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (12.67) | 15% |
| Down 5% or more (10.94) | 42% |
| Down 10% or more (10.36) | 31% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 31%, 1.1× the 28% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.