BFH
Bread Financial Holdings, Inc.After hours102.31+0.68 +0.67%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 16:00 ET · 20m delayAfter hours 102.31 0.00%
Open
101.98
Prev close
101.63
Day range
100.54103.77
52-week range
55.80114.53
Volume
390.02K0.71×
Mkt cap
3.93B
P/E ttm
7.93
Fwd P/E
7.46
EPS ttm
12.90
Div yield
0.91%
Earnings
Oct 22, 2026
From 52w high
−10.67%
BFH market-implied price distribution
BFH Price at Expiry
23 OTM quotes · ATM IV 44.4%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
62%
spot 102.31
Expected price
106.60
forward 102.26
68% range
95–116
−7.3% / +13.0%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 84.77 | −17.1% |
| 16% | 94.86 | −7.3% |
| 25% | 98.58 | −3.6% |
| 50% (median) | 105.15 | +2.8% |
| 75% | 111.64 | +9.1% |
| 84% | 115.62 | +13.0% |
| 95% | 142.41 | +39.2% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (107.43) | 40% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (112.54) | 23% |
| Down 5% or more (97.19) | 21% |
| Down 10% or more (92.08) | 11% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 11%, 0.5× the 25% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.