Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
TGT
Target Price
PCTL
Percentiles
Chance below
Price
vs spot
5%
11.93
−51.3%
16%
17.86
−27.1%
25%
20.33
−17.0%
50% (median)
23.61
−3.6%
75%
27.06
+10.5%
84%
29.58
+20.7%
95%
49.17
+100.7%
MOVE
Move Odds
Up 5% or more (25.73)
33%
Up 10% or more (26.95)
26%
Down 5% or more (23.28)
47%
Down 10% or more (22.05)
37%
Options price a 10%+ drop at 37%, 0.9× the 41% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.