BCS
Barclays PLCOpen23.11+0.05 +0.22%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 15:50 ET · 20m delay
Open
23.37
Prev close
23.06
Day range
22.9923.45
52-week range
19.2928.69
Volume
4.70M1.04×
Mkt cap
77.02B
P/E ttm
8.92
Fwd P/E
6.99
EPS ttm
2.59
Div yield
2.67%
Earnings
Oct 22, 2026
From 52w high
−19.45%
BCS market-implied price distribution
BCS Price at Expiry
13 OTM quotes · ATM IV 33.7%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
53%
spot 23.11
Expected price
23.09
forward 23.23
68% range
21–26
−10.3% / +10.7%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 17.13 | −25.9% |
| 16% | 20.72 | −10.3% |
| 25% | 21.65 | −6.3% |
| 50% (median) | 23.26 | +0.6% |
| 75% | 24.78 | +7.2% |
| 84% | 25.57 | +10.7% |
| 95% | 27.80 | +20.3% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (24.27) | 33% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (25.42) | 17% |
| Down 5% or more (21.95) | 29% |
| Down 10% or more (20.80) | 17% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 17%, 1.0× the 17% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.