Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
TGT
Target Price
PCTL
Percentiles
Chance below
Price
vs spot
5%
303.75
−20.1%
16%
328.87
−13.5%
25%
340.00
−10.6%
50% (median)
364.84
−4.0%
75%
398.83
+4.9%
84%
424.99
+11.8%
95%
589.55
+55.1%
MOVE
Move Odds
Up 5% or more (399.12)
25%
Up 10% or more (418.12)
18%
Down 5% or more (361.10)
46%
Down 10% or more (342.10)
27%
Options price a 10%+ drop at 27%, 1.0× the 27% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.