Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
TGT
Target Price
PCTL
Percentiles
Chance below
Price
vs spot
5%
20.19
−61.6%
16%
33.74
−35.7%
25%
38.99
−25.7%
50% (median)
49.52
−5.7%
75%
61.68
+17.5%
84%
69.12
+31.6%
95%
94.74
+80.4%
MOVE
Move Odds
Up 5% or more (55.14)
37%
Up 10% or more (57.76)
32%
Down 5% or more (49.88)
51%
Down 10% or more (47.26)
44%
Options price a 10%+ drop at 44%, 1.0× the 46% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.