BABA
Alibaba Group Holding LimitedOpen110.47−0.31 −0.28%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 13:45 ET · 20m delay
Open
109.39
Prev close
110.78
Day range
109.11111.94
52-week range
91.99182.50
Volume
4.50M0.44×
Mkt cap
274.82B
P/E ttm
26.75
Fwd P/E
11.90
EPS ttm
4.13
Div yield
0.95%
Earnings
Aug 20, 2026
From 52w high
−39.47%
BABA market-implied price distribution
BABA Price at Expiry
39 OTM quotes · ATM IV 38.9%
Days to expiry
31
Fri, Nov 13, 2026
P(finish above spot)
47%
spot 110.47
Expected price
111.01
forward 110.78
68% range
99–123
−10.5% / +11.0%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 91.51 | −17.2% |
| 16% | 98.84 | −10.5% |
| 25% | 102.28 | −7.4% |
| 50% (median) | 109.71 | −0.7% |
| 75% | 118.04 | +6.9% |
| 84% | 122.66 | +11.0% |
| 95% | 134.93 | +22.1% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (115.99) | 30% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (121.52) | 18% |
| Down 5% or more (104.95) | 33% |
| Down 10% or more (99.42) | 17% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 17%, 0.9× the 18% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.