AXTA
Axalta Coating Systems Ltd.Open33.43+0.34 +1.04%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 10:19 ET · 20m delay
Open
33.34
Prev close
33.08
Day range
33.2633.62
52-week range
24.9438.61
Volume
167.07K0.09×
Mkt cap
7.15B
P/E ttm
20.51
Fwd P/E
11.72
EPS ttm
1.63
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Oct 29, 2026
From 52w high
−13.43%
AXTA market-implied price distribution
AXTA Price at Expiry
8 OTM quotes · ATM IV 40.3%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
50%
spot 33.43
Expected price
33.38
forward 33.57
68% range
29–38
−12.4% / +12.4%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 25.14 | −24.8% |
| 16% | 29.29 | −12.4% |
| 25% | 30.75 | −8.0% |
| 50% (median) | 33.47 | +0.1% |
| 75% | 36.12 | +8.1% |
| 84% | 37.58 | +12.4% |
| 95% | 40.72 | +21.8% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (35.10) | 34% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (36.77) | 20% |
| Down 5% or more (31.75) | 33% |
| Down 10% or more (30.08) | 20% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 20%, 0.9× the 22% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.