AXP
American Express CompanyPre-market311.53+3.36 +1.09%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 12, 16:02 ET · 20m delayPre-market 314.28 +0.89%
Open
308.22
Prev close
308.17
Day range
308.18313.16
52-week range
290.97387.49
Volume
1.86M0.64×
Mkt cap
210.38B
P/E ttm
19.11
Fwd P/E
15.45
EPS ttm
16.30
Div yield
1.22%
Earnings
Oct 23, 2026
From 52w high
−19.60%
AXP market-implied price distribution
AXP Price at Expiry
23 OTM quotes · ATM IV 31.2%
Days to expiry
31
Fri, Nov 13, 2026
P(finish above spot)
43%
spot 311.53
Expected price
308.80
forward 308.70
68% range
284–333
−8.7% / +6.7%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 262.27 | −15.8% |
| 16% | 284.46 | −8.7% |
| 25% | 292.43 | −6.1% |
| 50% (median) | 307.69 | −1.2% |
| 75% | 323.64 | +3.9% |
| 84% | 332.52 | +6.7% |
| 95% | 359.35 | +15.3% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (327.11) | 21% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (342.68) | 9.7% |
| Down 5% or more (295.95) | 30% |
| Down 10% or more (280.38) | 13% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 13%, 0.8× the 16% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.