AXON
Axon Enterprise, Inc.Pre-market414.43−8.46 −2.00%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 12, 16:00 ET · 15m delay
Open
424.60
Prev close
422.89
Day range
412.19426.91
52-week range
339.01764.02
Volume
583.90K0.62×
Mkt cap
33.67B
P/E ttm
168.47
Fwd P/E
39.31
EPS ttm
2.46
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Aug 5, 2026
From 52w high
−45.76%
AXON market-implied price distribution
AXON Price at Expiry
31 OTM quotes · ATM IV 80.9%
Days to expiry
31
Fri, Nov 13, 2026
P(finish above spot)
41%
spot 414.43
Expected price
410.12
forward 410.12
68% range
320–502
−22.7% / +21.1%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 289.57 | −30.1% |
| 16% | 320.21 | −22.7% |
| 25% | 339.60 | −18.1% |
| 50% (median) | 392.09 | −5.4% |
| 75% | 462.35 | +11.6% |
| 84% | 501.91 | +21.1% |
| 95% | 592.61 | +43.0% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (435.15) | 33% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (455.87) | 27% |
| Down 5% or more (393.71) | 51% |
| Down 10% or more (372.99) | 41% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 41%, 1.1× the 39% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.