AXIA3.SA
AXIA ENERGIAON NMAfter hoursAXIA3.SA discounted cash flow valuation
AXIA3.SA Fair Value
Reverse DCF: today's price implies -6.0% a year of FCF growth for years 1–5, against 25.0% in this model.
Model: 25.0% from analyst next-year EPS & revenue growth (capped). Fades linearly to terminal growth by year 10.
Model: 7.00% (CAPM, see the build-up).
Long-run growth after year 10; keep it at or below nominal GDP.
Value Bridge
| PV of free cash flow, years 1–10 | BRL 296.72B |
|---|---|
| PV of terminal value (74% of EV) | BRL 835.12B |
| Enterprise value | BRL 1.13T |
| + Cash & investments | BRL 23.59B |
| − Total debt | −BRL 76.45B |
| Equity value | BRL 1.08T |
| ÷ Shares outstanding | 2.29B |
| Value per share | BRL 470.70 |
| Market cap | BRL 134.90B |
Discount Rate Build-up
| Risk-free rate (10-yr Treasury) | 5.22% |
|---|---|
| Beta (clamped 0.5–2.5) | 0.50 |
| Equity risk premium | 5.00% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM) | 7.72% |
| Pre-tax cost of debt | 7.87% |
| Tax rate | 27.0% |
| Debt / (equity + debt) | 36.2% |
| WACC | 7.00% |
Cost of debt is interest expense ÷ total debt, held between the risk-free rate and 12%.
Free Cash Flow: History and Projection
Sensitivity: Value per Share
| WACC ↓ / g → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.00% | 666.32 | 769.81 | 914.68 | 1,131.97 | 1,494.08 |
| 6.00% | 498.53 | 555.51 | 628.75 | 726.40 | 863.08 |
| 7.00% | 392.43 | 427.65 | 470.70 | 524.49 | 593.64 |
| 8.00% | 319.51 | 342.98 | 370.72 | 403.99 | 444.65 |
| 9.00% | 266.47 | 282.96 | 301.98 | 324.17 | 350.38 |
Green is above today's price, red below (full colour at ±30%). The outlined centre cell is the current inputs.
Projected Cash Flows
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base (TTM) | — | BRL 13.83B | — | — |
| Year 1 | 25.0% | BRL 17.28B | 0.935 | BRL 16.15B |
| Year 2 | 25.0% | BRL 21.60B | 0.873 | BRL 18.87B |
| Year 3 | 25.0% | BRL 27.00B | 0.816 | BRL 22.04B |
| Year 4 | 25.0% | BRL 33.75B | 0.763 | BRL 25.75B |
| Year 5 | 25.0% | BRL 42.19B | 0.713 | BRL 30.08B |
| Year 6 | 20.5% | BRL 50.84B | 0.666 | BRL 33.88B |
| Year 7 | 16.0% | BRL 58.98B | 0.623 | BRL 36.73B |
| Year 8 | 11.5% | BRL 65.76B | 0.582 | BRL 38.27B |
| Year 9 | 7.0% | BRL 70.36B | 0.544 | BRL 38.27B |
| Year 10 | 2.5% | BRL 72.12B | 0.508 | BRL 36.66B |
Method
Two-stage free-cash-flow model, the same as the bot's lgf dcf: five years at the chosen growth rate, a straight-line fade to terminal growth by year ten, then a Gordon-growth terminal value. Everything is discounted at WACC.
Base cash flow is the trailing four quarters of operating cash flow minus capital expenditure (the latest fiscal year when quarters are missing). Default growth uses analyst long-term growth when Yahoo publishes it, else the average of next year's EPS and revenue growth, else revenue CAGR, held between −5% and 25%.
A DCF is only as good as its inputs. The terminal value is usually most of the answer, so read the sensitivity grid before the headline number. This is a model, not investment advice.