AWI
Armstrong World Industries IncAfter hours164.66+2.79 +1.72%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 16:00 ET · 20m delayAfter hours 164.66 −0.02%
Open
162.99
Prev close
161.87
Day range
162.25165.70
52-week range
150.28206.08
Volume
269.48K0.64×
Mkt cap
6.96B
P/E ttm
22.53
Fwd P/E
17.19
EPS ttm
7.31
Div yield
0.84%
Earnings
Oct 27, 2026
From 52w high
−20.10%
AWI market-implied price distribution
AWI Price at Expiry
11 OTM quotes · ATM IV 31.3%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
52%
spot 164.66
Expected price
163.75
forward 165.36
68% range
146–180
−11.2% / +9.5%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 124.15 | −24.6% |
| 16% | 146.16 | −11.2% |
| 25% | 154.68 | −6.1% |
| 50% (median) | 165.48 | +0.5% |
| 75% | 174.89 | +6.2% |
| 84% | 180.31 | +9.5% |
| 95% | 197.10 | +19.7% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (172.89) | 29% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (181.13) | 15% |
| Down 5% or more (156.43) | 28% |
| Down 10% or more (148.19) | 18% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 18%, 1.2× the 15% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.