AVTX
Avalo Therapeutics, Inc.Pre-market12.01−1.23 −9.29%USD
NasdaqCM · as of Oct 13, 16:00 ET · 15m delayPre-market 12.02 +0.08%
Open
13.23
Prev close
13.24
Day range
11.9913.23
52-week range
11.9924.27
Volume
1.65M1.79×
Mkt cap
644.10M
P/E ttm
—
Fwd P/E
-4.43
EPS ttm
-4.31
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Aug 6, 2026
From 52w high
−50.52%
AVTX market-implied price distribution
AVTX Price at Expiry
7 OTM quotes · ATM IV 293.2%
Days to expiry
37
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
39%
spot 12.01
Expected price
12.06
forward 12.06
68% range
5–21
−56.3% / +70.8%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 3.80 | −68.4% |
| 16% | 5.25 | −56.3% |
| 25% | 6.07 | −49.4% |
| 50% (median) | 8.64 | −28.0% |
| 75% | 18.68 | +55.5% |
| 84% | 20.52 | +70.8% |
| 95% | 24.49 | +103.9% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (12.61) | 38% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (13.21) | 38% |
| Down 5% or more (11.41) | 60% |
| Down 10% or more (10.81) | 59% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 59%, 0.9× the 64% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.