AVEM
Avantis Emerging Markets EquityClosed91.02−1.80 −1.94%USD
NYSEArca · as of Oct 14, 16:00 ETAfter hours 91.02 0.00%
Open
91.53
Prev close
92.82
Day range
90.8491.88
52-week range
73.79100.83
Volume
1.72M1.00×
P/E ttm
12.50
EPS ttm
7.28
Div yield
2.56%
From 52w high
−9.73%
AVEM market-implied price distribution
AVEM Price at Expiry
8 OTM quotes · ATM IV 71.9%
Days to expiry
37
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
54%
spot 91.02
Expected price
93.44
forward 91.39
68% range
78–105
−14.5% / +15.9%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 67.98 | −25.3% |
| 16% | 77.87 | −14.5% |
| 25% | 83.58 | −8.2% |
| 50% (median) | 91.90 | +1.0% |
| 75% | 99.31 | +9.1% |
| 84% | 105.48 | +15.9% |
| 95% | 127.58 | +40.2% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (95.57) | 36% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (100.12) | 23% |
| Down 5% or more (86.47) | 30% |
| Down 10% or more (81.92) | 22% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 22%, 0.6× the 36% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.