AVBP
ArriVent BioPharma, Inc.Closed16.09−0.37 −2.25%USD
NasdaqGM · as of Oct 13, 16:00 ET · 15m delayAfter hours 16.37 +1.74%
Open
16.28
Prev close
16.46
Day range
15.9516.72
52-week range
11.3635.83
Volume
1.97M2.06×
Mkt cap
793.36M
P/E ttm
—
Fwd P/E
-4.15
EPS ttm
-3.62
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
—
From 52w high
−55.09%
AVBP market-implied price distribution
AVBP Price at Expiry
6 OTM quotes · ATM IV 123.1%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
50%
spot 16.09
Expected price
16.32
forward 16.32
68% range
10–23
−38.5% / +45.3%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 7.73 | −52.0% |
| 16% | 9.89 | −38.5% |
| 25% | 10.59 | −34.2% |
| 50% (median) | 16.21 | +0.8% |
| 75% | 22.04 | +37.0% |
| 84% | 23.38 | +45.3% |
| 95% | 24.51 | +52.3% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (16.89) | 48% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (17.70) | 45% |
| Down 5% or more (15.29) | 47% |
| Down 10% or more (14.48) | 44% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 44%, 1.0× the 46% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.