AVAV
AeroVironment, Inc.After hours127.13−4.38 −3.33%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 13, 16:00 ET · 15m delayAfter hours 127.89 +0.60%
Open
129.13
Prev close
131.51
Day range
125.20130.33
52-week range
125.20411.16
Volume
1.87M1.15×
Mkt cap
6.46B
P/E ttm
—
Fwd P/E
28.65
EPS ttm
-4.05
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Sep 9, 2026
From 52w high
−69.08%
AVAV market-implied price distribution
AVAV Price at Expiry
19 OTM quotes · ATM IV 56.5%
Days to expiry
31
Fri, Nov 13, 2026
P(finish above spot)
48%
spot 127.13
Expected price
128.29
forward 128.15
68% range
107–148
−15.5% / +16.2%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 93.31 | −26.6% |
| 16% | 107.43 | −15.5% |
| 25% | 113.42 | −10.8% |
| 50% (median) | 126.01 | −0.9% |
| 75% | 139.99 | +10.1% |
| 84% | 147.72 | +16.2% |
| 95% | 168.16 | +32.3% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (133.49) | 35% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (139.84) | 25% |
| Down 5% or more (120.77) | 39% |
| Down 10% or more (114.42) | 27% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 27%, 1.0× the 27% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.