AUTN.SW
AUTONEUM NClosedAUTN.SW discounted cash flow valuation
AUTN.SW Fair Value
Reverse DCF: today's price implies -7.5% a year of FCF growth for years 1–5, against 3.1% in this model.
Model: 3.1% from analyst next-year revenue growth. Fades linearly to terminal growth by year 10.
Model: 8.32% (CAPM, see the build-up).
Long-run growth after year 10; keep it at or below nominal GDP.
Value Bridge
| PV of free cash flow, years 1–10 | CHF 818.62M |
|---|---|
| PV of terminal value (60% of EV) | CHF 1.25B |
| Enterprise value | CHF 2.07B |
| + Cash & investments | CHF 108.10M |
| − Total debt | −CHF 496.10M |
| Equity value | CHF 1.68B |
| ÷ Shares outstanding | 5.80M |
| Value per share | CHF 290.12 |
| Market cap | CHF 715.14M |
Discount Rate Build-up
| Risk-free rate (10-yr Treasury) | 5.19% |
|---|---|
| Beta (adjusted toward 1) | 1.39 |
| Equity risk premium | 4.50% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM) | 11.45% |
| Pre-tax cost of debt | 5.19% |
| Tax rate | 26.5% |
| Debt / (equity + debt) | 41.0% |
| WACC | 8.32% |
Beta is Yahoo's, held between 0.5 and 2.5, then moved a third of the way toward 1. Cost of debt is interest expense ÷ total debt, held between the risk-free rate and 12%. WACC is at least the risk-free rate plus 2%.
Free Cash Flow: History and Projection
Sensitivity: Value per Share
| WACC ↓ / g → | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% | 4.00% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.32% | 395.65 | 443.32 | 505.34 | 589.34 | 709.52 |
| 7.32% | 308.06 | 337.08 | 372.82 | 417.90 | 476.54 |
| 8.32% | 248.21 | 267.37 | 290.12 | 317.58 | 351.39 |
| 9.32% | 204.74 | 218.11 | 233.59 | 251.73 | 273.27 |
| 10.32% | 171.73 | 181.46 | 192.51 | 205.18 | 219.84 |
Green is above today's price, red below (full colour at ±30%). The outlined centre cell is the current inputs.
Projected Cash Flows
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base (FY2025) | — | CHF 106.40M | — | — |
| Year 1 | 3.1% | CHF 109.70M | 0.923 | CHF 101.27M |
| Year 2 | 3.1% | CHF 113.10M | 0.852 | CHF 96.39M |
| Year 3 | 3.1% | CHF 116.61M | 0.787 | CHF 91.75M |
| Year 4 | 3.1% | CHF 120.22M | 0.726 | CHF 87.33M |
| Year 5 | 3.1% | CHF 123.95M | 0.671 | CHF 83.12M |
| Year 6 | 3.1% | CHF 127.76M | 0.619 | CHF 79.10M |
| Year 7 | 3.1% | CHF 131.67M | 0.572 | CHF 75.26M |
| Year 8 | 3.0% | CHF 135.68M | 0.528 | CHF 71.59M |
| Year 9 | 3.0% | CHF 139.77M | 0.487 | CHF 68.08M |
| Year 10 | 3.0% | CHF 143.97M | 0.450 | CHF 64.74M |
Method
Two-stage free-cash-flow model, the same as the bot's lgf dcf: five years at the chosen growth rate, a straight-line fade to terminal growth by year ten, then a Gordon-growth terminal value. Everything is discounted at WACC.
Base cash flow is the trailing four quarters of operating cash flow minus capital expenditure (the latest fiscal year when quarters are missing). Default growth uses analyst long-term growth when Yahoo publishes it, else next year's revenue growth (steadier than one year's EPS), else next year's EPS growth, else revenue CAGR, held between −2% and 25%. Terminal growth defaults to 3%.
A DCF is only as good as its inputs. The terminal value is usually most of the answer, so read the sensitivity grid before the headline number. This is a model, not investment advice.