ATAT
Atour Lifestyle Holdings LimiteAfter hours32.74−0.10 −0.30%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 13, 16:00 ET · 15m delayAfter hours 32.74 0.00%
Open
33.12
Prev close
32.84
Day range
32.5033.17
52-week range
30.7843.17
Volume
596.36K0.65×
Mkt cap
4.52B
P/E ttm
16.13
Fwd P/E
11.65
EPS ttm
2.03
Div yield
1.64%
Earnings
Aug 20, 2026
From 52w high
−24.17%
ATAT market-implied price distribution
ATAT Price at Expiry
7 OTM quotes · ATM IV 36.0%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
38%
spot 32.74
Expected price
31.95
forward 32.42
68% range
25–36
−25.0% / +9.0%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 19.63 | −40.0% |
| 16% | 24.57 | −25.0% |
| 25% | 31.95 | −2.4% |
| 50% (median) | 32.62 | −0.4% |
| 75% | 34.18 | +4.4% |
| 84% | 35.69 | +9.0% |
| 95% | 36.97 | +12.9% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (34.38) | 23% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (36.01) | 15% |
| Down 5% or more (31.10) | 21% |
| Down 10% or more (29.47) | 18% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 18%, 0.8× the 22% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.